Waalwijk 6-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees MVV travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.30 PPG, MVV 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, MVV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for MVV and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
MVV in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 80% and MVV 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 66% | MVV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.06 xG and MVV 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / defence 1.073 | MVV attack 1.034 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Data: 44 Waalwijk games / 44 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 21% | MVV 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | MVV 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | MVV 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 21% | MVV 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Waalwijk 2.06 / MVV 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / def 1.073 | MVV attack 1.034 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.87
MVV xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs MVV kick off?
Waalwijk vs MVV kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs MVV?
Waalwijk 6 - 1 MVV.
Where is Waalwijk vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs MVV part of?
Waalwijk vs MVV is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 43% chance of winning, MVV a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Waalwijk and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and MVV?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 0 | MVV 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and MVV in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
43%
2.31
21%
4.81
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.93
1.87
MVV xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
5%
21.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.87 for MVV, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 16D 12L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, MVV sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (13W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.45 PPG, MVV on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, MVV have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and MVV in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while MVV have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or MVV away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.52 PPG; MVV away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Waalwijk have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2026, when Waalwijk won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
0
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and MVV?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, MVV have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Waalwijk 6-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and MVV?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 81%, MVV 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Waalwijk and 62% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of MVV's.
Do Waalwijk and MVV tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, MVV in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 6-1 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat MVV 6-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.06 xG and MVV 1.87 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against MVV attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 43% | Draw 21% | MVV 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, MVV 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.45 PPG, MVV 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.