VVV Venlo 4-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host Dordrecht at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (VVV Venlo) versus 1.30 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VVV Venlo have won 1, Dordrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with VVV Venlo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 56% and Dordrecht 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 61% | Dordrecht 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.937 / defence 1.441 | Dordrecht attack 0.986 / defence 1.626. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.432. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.626 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 VVV Venlo games / 23 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 34% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 45%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Dordrecht 2.22. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 34% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG VVV Venlo 1.74 / Dordrecht 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.937 / def 1.441 | Dordrecht attack 0.986 / def 1.626 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Dordrecht xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
VVV Venlo 4 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht part of?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 34% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both VVV Venlo and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
34%
2.98
21%
4.73
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.78
2.04
Dordrecht xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
13%
7.66
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
4%
22.80
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 2.04 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 8W 2D 13L from 23 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 13L across 23 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.13 PPG, Dordrecht on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 5W 1D 6L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 3W 1D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.35 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 8W 2D 13L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Dordrecht away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.33 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
0
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Dordrecht have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VVV Venlo at 67%, Dordrecht at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VVV Venlo and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VVV Venlo's games and 83% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VVV Venlo's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do VVV Venlo and Dordrecht tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Dordrecht 4-2 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 2.04 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 1.63, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 34% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 45%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 61%, Dordrecht 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.13 PPG, Dordrecht 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.