Vitesse 1-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.10 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 60% and Jong PSV U21 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 60% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.866 / defence 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.011 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: 11 Vitesse games / 49 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Jong PSV U21 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 90% | Jong PSV U21 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Vitesse 1.36 / Jong PSV U21 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.866 / def 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.011 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Jong PSV U21 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Vitesse 1 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.87) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.61
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.06
1.70
Jong PSV U21 xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.12
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.70 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 45 games, going 8W 11D 26L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 0.93 PPG from 45 outings (11W 9D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 0.78 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vitesse's home form reads 2W 9D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (7W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 11D 26L in their last 45 games (0.78 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 9D 25L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.68 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vitesse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vitesse's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
0
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Jong PSV U21?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 0-2 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, Jong PSV U21 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Vitesse and 73% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 27% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vitesse's games and 59% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vitesse's matches and 73% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Vitesse 1-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.70 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.78 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.