Vitesse 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host FC OSS at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vitesse at 1.20 PPG versus FC OSS's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vitesse, 0 for FC OSS and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 62% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 69% | FC OSS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.47 xG and FC OSS 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.929 / defence 1.128 | FC OSS attack 0.863 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.448. Data: 55 Vitesse games / 56 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 36%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitesse 1.47 / FC OSS 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.929 / def 1.128 | FC OSS attack 0.863 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC OSS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC OSS kick off?
Vitesse vs FC OSS kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Vitesse 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Vitesse vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC OSS part of?
Vitesse vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, FC OSS a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitesse and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Vitesse and FC OSS in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.93) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.96
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.88
1.41
FC OSS xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.41 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 15D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.98 PPG from 55 outings (11W 21D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.20 PPG, FC OSS on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vitesse's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.70 points per game from 27 outings (2W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.89 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 21D 23L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC OSS away?
Vitesse's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.33 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vitesse's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitesse
3
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC OSS?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC OSS have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC OSS?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 63%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Vitesse) and 37% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Vitesse's games and 48% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Vitesse's recent games and 37% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and FC OSS tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and FC OSS finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.47 xG and FC OSS 1.41 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 36%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 69%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.20 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.