Vitesse vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vitesse at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Den Bosch travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Vitesse are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Vitesse, 3 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Den Bosch trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 64% and Den Bosch 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 69% | Den Bosch 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.75 xG and Den Bosch 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.836 / defence 1.017 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Vitesse games / 42 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 38%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Vitesse 1.75 / Den Bosch 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.836 / def 1.017 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Den Bosch xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Den Bosch kick off?
Vitesse vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at GelreDome.
Where is Vitesse vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Den Bosch part of?
Vitesse vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Vitesse and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Vitesse and Den Bosch in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.84x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.55
22%
4.47
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.47
1.73
Den Bosch xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.73 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 17W 12D 13L from 42 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 19L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.50 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 3D 12L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.64 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 79%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 17W 12D 13L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Den Bosch away?
Vitesse's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.33 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Den Bosch runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vitesse
0
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 71%, Den Bosch at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vitesse and 81% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Vitesse's games and 76% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vitesse's matches and 81% of Den Bosch's.
Do Vitesse and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.