Telstar 3-4 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Telstar welcome Roda to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 0.82 xG and Roda 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.986 / defence 1.094 | Roda attack 1.018 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.808 / away 1.525. Data: 2 Telstar games / 2 Roda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Telstar 17% | Draw 25% | Roda 58%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Roda (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 17% | Draw 25% | Roda 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Telstar 0.82 / Roda 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.986 / def 1.094 | Roda attack 1.018 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.808 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Roda (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Roda xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Roda kick off?
Telstar vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Roda?
Telstar 3 - 4 Roda.
Where is Telstar vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Roda part of?
Telstar vs Roda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 17% chance of winning, Roda a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Telstar and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and Roda in?
Telstar (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D. Roda (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.99) and Roda's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
17%
5.73
25%
4.04
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.52
1.70
Roda xG
5.73
17%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
3%
31.28
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Telstar and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Telstar and 1.70 for Roda, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Roda in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Roda in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Roda have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Telstar or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Telstar have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Roda in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Roda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
1
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Telstar 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Telstar's games and 50% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Telstar's matches and 100% of Roda's.
Do Telstar and Roda tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Roda in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Telstar 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Telstar 3-4 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 0.82 xG and Roda 1.70 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Roda attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 17% | Draw 25% | Roda 58%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 50%, Roda 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.