Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Telstar welcome Jong Utrecht to 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Telstar have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Telstar at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Telstar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Utrecht stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Telstar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Telstar, 2 for Jong Utrecht and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Telstar 1–1 Jong Utrecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 57% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 56% | Jong Utrecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.16 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.139 / defence 0.744 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.699 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.280. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Telstar have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Jong Utrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Telstar's last 62 games and Jong Utrecht's last 61.
Result probabilities: Telstar 72% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 10%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.40 | Draw 5.36 | Jong Utrecht 10.18. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Telstar's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 30% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 25 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 72% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Telstar 2.16 / Jong Utrecht 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.139 / def 0.744 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.699 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Telstar (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Jong Utrecht xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Telstar vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does Telstar vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Telstar vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Telstar 6 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Telstar vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Telstar vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 72% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Telstar and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Telstar vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Telstar's attack at 1.14x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Telstar's last 62 games and Jong Utrecht's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
72%
1.40
19%
5.36
10%
10.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.82
0.67
Jong Utrecht xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
10.18
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
1%
88.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Telstar vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Telstar and 0.67 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Telstar come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 16D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.66 PPG from 61 outings (7W 19D 35L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Telstar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Telstar's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Telstar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 30 away games (1W 9D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.85 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Telstar (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Telstar
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Telstar vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Telstar and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 19D 35L in their last 61 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Telstar's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.53 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2025, when Telstar won Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht.
Telstar's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Telstar vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Telstar have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong Utrecht?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 60%, Jong Utrecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Telstar and 60% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Telstar vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Telstar and Jong Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Telstar's games and 57% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Telstar and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Telstar's matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Telstar and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Telstar's recent matches and 83% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Telstar run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Jong Utrecht 6-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.16 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.67 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.14 / defence 0.74 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 72% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 10%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 56%, Jong Utrecht 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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