Telstar 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Den Bosch are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Telstar are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Telstar a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 60% versus Den Bosch 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 53% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.027 / defence 0.904 | Den Bosch attack 1.001 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.455. Data: 45 Telstar games / 45 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 39% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Den Bosch 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Telstar dominate the H2H record, yet Den Bosch are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Telstar 70% | Den Bosch 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 39% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Telstar 1.47 / Den Bosch 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.027 / def 0.904 | Den Bosch attack 1.001 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Telstar (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Den Bosch xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Den Bosch kick off?
Telstar vs Den Bosch kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Telstar 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Telstar vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Den Bosch part of?
Telstar vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Telstar and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): Telstar 4W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (1.03) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.00x) against Telstar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.40
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Den Bosch xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Telstar and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Telstar and 1.32 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 10D 23L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch's form line: 13W 10D 22L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Telstar against 1.09 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Den Bosch away?
Telstar's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.36 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Telstar
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 68%, Den Bosch 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Telstar) and 50% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Telstar's recent matches and 36% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Telstar's recent games and 50% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Telstar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar and Den Bosch finished level at 0-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 39% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 32%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 53%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.02 PPG, Den Bosch 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.