Roda 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Waalwijk travel to Parkstad Limburg to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 1.40 PPG, Waalwijk 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Roda, 1 for Waalwijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 62% and Waalwijk 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.26 xG and Waalwijk 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.878 / defence 0.851 | Waalwijk attack 0.965 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Waalwijk's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Roda games / 45 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 36% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 37%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Waalwijk 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 36% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Roda 1.26 / Waalwijk 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.878 / def 0.851 | Waalwijk attack 0.965 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Waalwijk xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Waalwijk kick off?
Roda vs Waalwijk kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Parkstad Limburg.
What was the final score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Roda 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Roda vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg.
What competition is Roda vs Waalwijk part of?
Roda vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 36% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Roda and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.75
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Roda xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Waalwijk xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Roda and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Roda and 1.29 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Roda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 17W 18D 12L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 18W 16D 13L from 47 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 6L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.87 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 77%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 18D 12L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 18W 16D 13L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Waalwijk away?
Waalwijk's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.17 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Roda
2
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
From 5 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Roda 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Waalwijk?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 56%, Waalwijk at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Roda) and 56% (Waalwijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Roda's games and 74% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Roda's recent games and 56% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Waalwijk 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.26 xG and Waalwijk 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Waalwijk attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 36% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 37%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.