Roda 1-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host PEC Zwolle at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus PEC Zwolle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | PEC Zwolle 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.06 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.963 / defence 0.990 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.379 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.309. PEC Zwolle's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Roda games / 21 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 22% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 54%. Fair-value odds: Roda 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 1.85. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 70% | PEC Zwolle 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 22% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Roda 1.06 / PEC Zwolle 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.963 / def 0.990 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.379 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.79
PEC Zwolle xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Roda vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs PEC Zwolle?
Roda 1 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Roda vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Roda vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 22% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Roda and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and PEC Zwolle in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.96x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
22%
4.45
23%
4.30
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Roda xG
Total xG
2.85
1.79
PEC Zwolle xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
26.57
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Roda and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Roda and 1.79 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 25W 15D 15L from 55 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 24L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.64 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 12W 1D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.44 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 15D 15L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 23W 8D 24L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Roda's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.88 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Roda
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Roda have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 62%, PEC Zwolle 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 50% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 35%; PEC Zwolle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Roda's recent matches and 27% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Roda's recent games and 50% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.06 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.79 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.38 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 22% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 54%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, PEC Zwolle 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.64 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.