Roda 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 7 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 3W 0D 6L from 9 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Roda's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 65% versus MVV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 65% | MVV 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.69 xG and MVV 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.027 / defence 1.140 | MVV attack 0.641 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.559. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Roda games / 20 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 50% | Draw 24% | MVV 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | MVV 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | MVV 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 50% | Draw 24% | MVV 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Roda 1.69 / MVV 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.027 / def 1.140 | MVV attack 0.641 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.559 • Poisson stance: Roda (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.14
MVV xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs MVV kick off?
Roda vs MVV kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 7 January 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs MVV?
Roda 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is Roda vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs MVV part of?
Roda vs MVV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 50% chance of winning, MVV a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Roda and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Roda and MVV in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.03x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.64x) against Roda's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.15
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Roda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.14
MVV xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
21.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Roda and 1.14 for MVV, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 8W 7D 5L from 20 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 11L across 20 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.10 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and MVV in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 8W 7D 5L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while MVV have gone 7W 2D 11L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or MVV away?
Roda's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.44 PPG; MVV away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Roda or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, MVV in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
3
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, MVV have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Roda 2-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Roda and MVV?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, MVV 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Roda) and 56% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; MVV in 33%; MVV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Roda's recent matches and 33% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 56% of MVV's.
Do Roda and MVV tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, MVV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat MVV 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.69 xG and MVV 1.14 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against MVV attack 0.64 / defence 1.40, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 50% | Draw 24% | MVV 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 65%, MVV 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
MVV's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.