Roda 2-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Roda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Jong AZ meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Jong AZ 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | Jong AZ 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.85 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.000 / defence 0.933 | Jong AZ attack 1.179 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.434. Data: 56 Roda games / 56 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 33%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 44% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Roda 1.85 / Jong AZ 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.000 / def 0.933 | Jong AZ attack 1.179 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Jong AZ xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong AZ kick off?
Roda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Roda 2 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Roda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong AZ part of?
Roda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 44% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Roda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.00x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.18x) against Roda's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.40
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Roda xG
Total xG
3.43
1.58
Jong AZ xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Roda and 1.58 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda's recent record stands at 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 25L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Roda against 1.23 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Roda have managed 12W 9D 7L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.70 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong AZ away?
Roda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.61 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jong AZ have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 46%, Jong AZ 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 64% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Roda's games and 64% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Roda's matches and 64% of Jong AZ's.
Do Roda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Roda 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Roda 2-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.85 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Jong AZ attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 33%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Jong AZ 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.38 PPG, Jong AZ 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.