Roda 2-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Jong Ajax at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 3D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Roda) versus 1.10 (Jong Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Roda, 1 for Jong Ajax and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 53% versus Jong Ajax 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Jong Ajax 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.40 xG and Jong Ajax 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.988 / defence 0.815 | Jong Ajax attack 1.041 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: 49 Roda games / 49 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 38% | Draw 31% | Jong Ajax 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Jong Ajax 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 38% | Draw 31% | Jong Ajax 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Roda 1.40 / Jong Ajax 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.988 / def 0.815 | Jong Ajax attack 1.041 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Roda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jong Ajax xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Roda vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Roda 2 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Roda vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Ajax part of?
Roda vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 38% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Roda and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Record (6 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 2 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
38%
2.61
31%
3.27
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Roda xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Jong Ajax xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Roda and 1.25 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 22W 16D 11L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 21L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.33 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 22W 16D 11L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Ajax away?
Roda's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.17 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Roda's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Ajax?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 48%, Jong Ajax 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 70% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Roda's games and 74% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 70% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Roda and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Ajax 2-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.40 xG and Jong Ajax 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 38% | Draw 31% | Jong Ajax 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Jong Ajax 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.