Roda 3-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Excelsior (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Excelsior.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Excelsior are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Excelsior hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Excelsior winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Excelsior have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 54% and Excelsior 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 48% | Excelsior 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.39 xG and Excelsior 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.857 / defence 0.949 | Excelsior attack 1.160 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. Data: 46 Roda games / 8 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Excelsior 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Roda 1.39 / Excelsior 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.857 / def 0.949 | Excelsior attack 1.160 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Excelsior xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Excelsior kick off?
Roda vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Roda 3 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Roda vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Excelsior part of?
Roda vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 31% chance of winning, Excelsior a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Roda and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 3W.
What form are Roda and Excelsior in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.86) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.16x) against Roda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.64
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Roda xG
Total xG
3.01
1.62
Excelsior xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Roda and 1.62 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 21W 16D 9L from 46 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 19L across 46 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.91 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 16D 9L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Excelsior away?
Roda's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.14 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Roda or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Excelsior in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
2
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Excelsior 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Roda and 91% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 73% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Roda's matches and 91% of Excelsior's.
Do Roda and Excelsior tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Excelsior 3-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.39 xG and Excelsior 1.62 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Excelsior attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 31% | Draw 27% | Excelsior 41%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 48%, Excelsior 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Excelsior's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.