Roda 3-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 2W 4D 3L this season (9 games, 1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Roda) versus 1.60 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 61% versus Den Bosch 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 67% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.935 / defence 1.106 | Den Bosch attack 0.698 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Roda games / 18 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 56% | Den Bosch 38%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Roda 1.46 / Den Bosch 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.935 / def 1.106 | Den Bosch attack 0.698 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Den Bosch xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Roda 3 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 43% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.94) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.87
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Roda xG
Total xG
2.65
1.20
Den Bosch xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Roda and 1.20 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 7W 6D 5L from 18 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 9L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.50 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 2W 4D 2L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.11 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 1D 9L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.25 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Roda or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Den Bosch 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 50% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Den Bosch in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 38% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Roda's recent games and 50% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Den Bosch 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Den Bosch 3-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 1.20 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Den Bosch attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 43% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 67%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Den Bosch's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.50 PPG, Den Bosch 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.