PEC Zwolle 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host MVV at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
MVV — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, MVV have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 2.00 PPG versus MVV's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 48% versus MVV 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 46% | MVV 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.87 xG and MVV 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.070 / defence 1.177 | MVV attack 0.978 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.321. Data: 12 PEC Zwolle games / 50 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 23% | MVV 31%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | MVV 3.23. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 90% | MVV 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 23% | MVV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.87 / MVV 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.070 / def 1.177 | MVV attack 0.978 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.52
MVV xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs MVV kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs MVV?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs MVV part of?
PEC Zwolle vs MVV is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 46% chance of winning, MVV a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both PEC Zwolle and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and MVV in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. MVV (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (1.07) and MVV's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.40
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.39
1.52
MVV xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
5%
20.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.52 for MVV, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 15W 8D 23L from 46 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 22L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.15 PPG, MVV on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 8W 2D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.35 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and MVV in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 8D 23L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while MVV have gone 17W 7D 22L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or MVV away?
MVV's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.14 PPG; MVV away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and MVV?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, MVV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2023, when MVV 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 68%, MVV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PEC Zwolle) and 68% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of PEC Zwolle's games and 59% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 68% of MVV's.
Do PEC Zwolle and MVV tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, MVV in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.87 xG and MVV 1.52 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.07 / defence 1.18 against MVV attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 23% | MVV 31%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 46%, MVV 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
MVV's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG, MVV 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.