NAC Breda 1-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as NAC Breda welcome Emmen to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.50 (Emmen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Emmen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against NAC Breda's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 73% and Emmen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 70% | Emmen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Emmen 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.992 / defence 1.202 | Emmen attack 1.105 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.280. Data: 44 NAC Breda games / 6 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 22% | Emmen 36%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Emmen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 22% | Emmen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG NAC Breda 1.84 / Emmen 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.992 / def 1.202 | Emmen attack 1.105 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Emmen xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Emmen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
NAC Breda 1 - 3 Emmen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Emmen part of?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 42% chance of winning, Emmen a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both NAC Breda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 4W.
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.99x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
42%
2.39
22%
4.53
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.54
1.70
Emmen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.70 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 6D 19L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 0.98 PPG from 44 outings (10W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 10W 3D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (5W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.14 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 6D 19L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Emmen have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Emmen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; Emmen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 71%, Emmen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NAC Breda and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 67% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NAC Breda's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do NAC Breda and Emmen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Emmen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat NAC Breda 1-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Emmen 1.70 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Emmen outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Emmen attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 42% | Draw 22% | Emmen 36%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 70%, Emmen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.