NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: NAC Breda 0W, De Graafschap 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 46% versus De Graafschap 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 50% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.025 / defence 0.810 | De Graafschap attack 0.965 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.435. De Graafschap's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 NAC Breda games / 28 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | De Graafschap 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | De Graafschap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG NAC Breda 0.96 / De Graafschap 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.025 / def 0.810 | De Graafschap attack 0.965 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
De Graafschap xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kick off?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap part of?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 30% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both NAC Breda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.96x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.19
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.08
1.12
De Graafschap xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.12 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 11W 9D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.68 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (7W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 2D 2L from 13 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.68 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.43 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; De Graafschap in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.23 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, De Graafschap have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 46%, De Graafschap 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 69% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; De Graafschap in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 46% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 0.96 xG and De Graafschap 1.12 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against De Graafschap attack 0.96 / defence 0.77, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 31% | De Graafschap 39%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.50 PPG, De Graafschap 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.