NAC Breda 1-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Cambuur travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.20 (Cambuur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for NAC Breda, 0 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 70% and Cambuur 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 66% | Cambuur 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.902 / defence 0.971 | Cambuur attack 1.303 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.309. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 NAC Breda games / 25 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Cambuur 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG NAC Breda 1.67 / Cambuur 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.902 / def 0.971 | Cambuur attack 1.303 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Cambuur xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Cambuur kick off?
NAC Breda vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 February 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Cambuur?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is NAC Breda vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Cambuur part of?
NAC Breda vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 37% chance of winning, Cambuur a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both NAC Breda and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Cambuur in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.90
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.33
1.66
Cambuur xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
7%
13.98
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.66 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 26W 10D 23L from 59 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 34L across 59 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 13W 6D 9L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 6D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.42 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Cambuur in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 26W 10D 23L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 34L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Cambuur away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.61 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Cambuur runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Cambuur?
From 2 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 68%, Cambuur at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for NAC Breda and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 64% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of NAC Breda's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do NAC Breda and Cambuur tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 66%, Cambuur 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.