MVV 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Almere City FC travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 2.20 PPG, Almere City FC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for MVV, 1 for Almere City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Mar 2022, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 58% versus Almere City FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 64% | Almere City FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.301 / defence 0.889 | Almere City FC attack 0.974 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.348. MVV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 MVV games / 53 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 57% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to MVV (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 80% | Almere City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 57% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 2.04 / Almere City FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.301 / def 0.889 | Almere City FC attack 0.974 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: MVV (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Almere City FC xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Almere City FC kick off?
MVV vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
MVV 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is MVV vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Almere City FC part of?
MVV vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 57% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are MVV and Almere City FC in?
MVV (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.30) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.72
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
MVV xG
Total xG
3.21
1.17
Almere City FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
36.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are MVV and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for MVV and 1.17 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, MVV have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 7D 25L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 19W 10D 24L from 53 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.32 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 9W 5D 12L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 21W 7D 25L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 19W 10D 24L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Almere City FC away?
MVV's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.46 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
MVV
1
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, Almere City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when MVV 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 65%, Almere City FC at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for MVV and 69% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of MVV's games and 65% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of MVV's matches and 69% of Almere City FC's.
Do MVV and Almere City FC tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Almere City FC 1-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Almere City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.30 / defence 0.89 against Almere City FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 57% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 21%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Almere City FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.32 PPG, Almere City FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.