Jong Utrecht 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Telstar at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Jong Utrecht welcome Telstar to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Jong Utrecht) versus 1.50 (Telstar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong Utrecht, 0 for Telstar and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Telstar in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus Telstar 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 56% | Telstar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.73 xG and Telstar 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.589 / defence 0.981 | Telstar attack 0.793 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.233. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Telstar's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Jong Utrecht games / 61 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Telstar 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Jong Utrecht's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Telstar at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Telstar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 20% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.73 / Telstar 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.589 / def 0.981 | Telstar attack 0.793 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Telstar (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Telstar xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Telstar kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 27% chance of winning, Telstar a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Telstar in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.59x the league average against Telstar's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
27%
3.73
34%
2.96
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
1.69
0.96
Telstar xG
3.73
27%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.96 for Telstar, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 15W 10D 36L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 16W 19D 26L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.90 PPG, Telstar on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.80 PPG from 30 outings (7W 3D 20L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 7W 11D 12L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.16 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Telstar in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 10D 36L in their last 61 games (0.90 PPG), while Telstar have gone 16W 19D 26L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Telstar away?
Telstar's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.80 PPG; Telstar away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Telstar won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 30%, Telstar 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong Utrecht) and 53% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 60% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 53% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Telstar tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Telstar in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Telstar edge out Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.73 xG and Telstar 0.96 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.59 / defence 0.98 against Telstar attack 0.79 / defence 0.72, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 27% | Draw 34% | Telstar 39%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 56%, Telstar 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.90 PPG, Telstar 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.