Jong Utrecht 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Dordrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.80 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Dordrecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Jong Utrecht's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Dordrecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dordrecht have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus Dordrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 51% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.716 / defence 1.216 | Dordrecht attack 0.830 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.241. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Jong Utrecht games / 74 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 34% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Dordrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | Dordrecht 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 34% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.21 / Dordrecht 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.716 / def 1.216 | Dordrecht attack 0.830 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dordrecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 34% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.72x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.41
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Dordrecht xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.25 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 74 games, going 8W 22D 44L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.81 PPG from 74 outings (37W 23D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 6W 13D 18L across 37 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.49 points per game from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.88 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 22D 44L in their last 74 games (0.62 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 37W 23D 14L in their last 74 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.84 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 49%, Dordrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jong Utrecht) and 60% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Jong Utrecht's games and 62% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 60% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG and Dordrecht 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.22 against Dordrecht attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 34% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 51%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.