Jong Utrecht 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Jong Utrecht face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Dordrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Dordrecht have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 2.20 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Dordrecht have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Jong Utrecht.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Jong Utrecht 3–3 Dordrecht — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dordrecht have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 44% versus Dordrecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 47% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG and Dordrecht 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.567 / defence 1.159 | Dordrecht attack 1.341 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.567 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Dordrecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.341, which lifts their away xG to 2.12. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 75 games and Dordrecht's last 75.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 15% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 62%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 6.73 | Draw 4.41 | Dordrecht 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 38 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 15% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Jong Utrecht 0.97 / Dordrecht 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.567 / def 1.159 | Dordrecht attack 1.341 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Dordrecht xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 38) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 15% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.57x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 75 games and Dordrecht's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
15%
6.73
23%
4.41
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.09
2.12
Dordrecht xG
6.73
15%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
2%
56.10
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.12 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 75 games, going 12W 17D 46L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.37 PPG from 75 outings (27W 22D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 9W 11D 17L across their last 37 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 11D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.52 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 17D 46L in their last 75 games (0.71 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 27W 22D 26L in their last 75 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.03 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won Jong Utrecht 0-4 Dordrecht.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 4, Dordrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Jong Utrecht 3-2 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 35%, Dordrecht 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Jong Utrecht) and 60% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 49% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 68% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 60% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 81% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht finished level at 1-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG and Dordrecht 2.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.57 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 1.34 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 15% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 62%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 47%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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