Jong Utrecht 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 0, De Graafschap 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus De Graafschap 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 56% | De Graafschap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.99 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.598 / defence 0.965 | De Graafschap attack 1.164 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.309. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Jong Utrecht games / 59 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 26% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 48%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.08. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 10% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 26% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.99 / De Graafschap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.598 / def 0.965 | De Graafschap attack 1.164 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.47
De Graafschap xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 26% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
26%
3.91
26%
3.80
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.46
1.47
De Graafschap xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.47 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 9D 35L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 21W 17D 21L from 59 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.79 PPG from 29 outings (7W 2D 20L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 12W 6D 11L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.42 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 9D 35L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.79 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
5
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 28%, De Graafschap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jong Utrecht) and 69% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 34%; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 59% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 59% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 22, as Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.99 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.60 / defence 0.96 against De Graafschap attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 26% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 48%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 56%, De Graafschap 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.