Jong PSV U21 0-5 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours NAC Breda (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Jong PSV U21 face NAC Breda.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

NAC Breda make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Monday 4 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Jong PSV U21 (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

NAC Breda have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

NAC Breda arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Jong PSV U21's games and 70% of NAC Breda's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, NAC Breda have the stronger record — 3 wins to Jong PSV U21's 0, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended Jong PSV U21 1–2 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.

NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and NAC Breda 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 67% | NAC Breda 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.45 xG and NAC Breda 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.933 / defence 1.301 | NAC Breda attack 1.263 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.360. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.263, which lifts their away xG to 2.23. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 54 games and NAC Breda's last 54.

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 55%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.14 | Draw 4.75 | NAC Breda 1.82. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.45 / 2.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 80% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights