Jong PSV U21 0-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Heracles to PSV Campus De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 4D 2L at PSV Campus De Herdgang — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Heracles have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG, Heracles 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Heracles trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 63% versus Heracles 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 60% | Heracles 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.41 xG and Heracles 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.987 / defence 0.914 | Heracles attack 1.065 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.395. Data: 40 Jong PSV U21 games / 2 Heracles games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Heracles 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Heracles 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Jong PSV U21 60% | Heracles 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Heracles 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.41 / Heracles 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.987 / def 0.914 | Heracles attack 1.065 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Heracles xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 3 Heracles.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 38% chance of winning, Heracles a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.99x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.93
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.36
Heracles xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.36 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 11D 15L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles's form line: 11W 7D 20L from 38 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.24 PPG, Heracles on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 3W 2D 14L from 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Heracles in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Heracles have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Heracles away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.58 PPG; Heracles away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Heracles 3-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 63%, Heracles 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Jong PSV U21) and 47% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 37% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 47% of Heracles's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Heracles tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Heracles in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Jong PSV U21 0-3 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.41 xG and Heracles 1.36 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Heracles attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 38% | Draw 25% | Heracles 36%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 60%, Heracles 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heracles's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.24 PPG, Heracles 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.