Jong PSV U21 3-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Excelsior travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Excelsior have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Excelsior are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Excelsior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for Excelsior and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 62% and Excelsior 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 67% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG and Excelsior 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.269 / defence 1.124 | Excelsior attack 1.219 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Jong PSV U21 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Excelsior have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Jong PSV U21 games / 21 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 49%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Excelsior 2.04. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Excelsior 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.57 / Excelsior 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.269 / def 1.124 | Excelsior attack 1.219 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Excelsior xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 29% chance of winning, Excelsior a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.27) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
29%
3.46
23%
4.44
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.63
2.06
Excelsior xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
13%
7.84
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
4%
27.14
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.06 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 8W 4D 9L from 21 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 4L across 21 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 8W 1D 2L across 11 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Excelsior in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 4D 4L in their last 21 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.55 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Excelsior in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Excelsior 5-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 64%, Excelsior 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jong PSV U21 and 64% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 36%; Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jong PSV U21's games and 64% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 64% of Excelsior's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Excelsior tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Excelsior 3-0 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG and Excelsior 2.06 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.27 / defence 1.12 against Excelsior attack 1.22 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 29% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 49%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Jong PSV U21 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 67%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.