Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 7 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at De Herdgang this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.90 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, De Graafschap have the stronger historical record — 8 wins to Jong PSV U21's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 63% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 65% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG and De Graafschap 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.891 / defence 0.868 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 43 Jong PSV U21 games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
De Graafschap lead the H2H ledger, but Jong PSV U21 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 7 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.46 / De Graafschap 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.891 / def 0.868 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 7 December 2026 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 39% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 8W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.89) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.93x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.99
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
De Graafschap xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.38 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 19W 7D 17L from 43 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.44 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 7D 17L in their last 43 games (1.49 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.68 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 54%, De Graafschap 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Jong PSV U21 and 64% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jong PSV U21's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 64% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.