Jong AZ 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helmond Sport make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Helmond Sport's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Jong AZ's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong AZ lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 42% versus Helmond Sport 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 42% | Helmond Sport 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.46 xG and Helmond Sport 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.736 / defence 1.022 | Helmond Sport attack 0.732 / defence 1.563. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.563 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Jong AZ games / 36 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Helmond Sport 3.45. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 30% | Helmond Sport 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Jong AZ 1.46 / Helmond Sport 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.736 / def 1.022 | Helmond Sport attack 0.732 / def 1.563 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Helmond Sport xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport part of?
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 45% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong AZ and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are Jong AZ and Helmond Sport in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (0.74) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.73x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.78
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Helmond Sport xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.12 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 11W 6D 19L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 23L across 36 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Jong AZ against 0.75 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 7W 3D 8L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.03 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 7W 6D 23L in their last 36 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Helmond Sport away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.33 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
1
Draws
5
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Helmond Sport have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 39%, Helmond Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jong AZ) and 56% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 44% of games; Helmond Sport in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jong AZ's recent games and 56% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.46 xG and Helmond Sport 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Helmond Sport attack 0.73 / defence 1.56, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 29%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 42%, Helmond Sport 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.08 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.