Jong AZ 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 3D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 1 for FC OSS and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 60% versus FC OSS 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 55% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.013 / defence 0.989 | FC OSS attack 0.762 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. Data: 47 Jong AZ games / 47 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 4.35. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | FC OSS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Jong AZ 1.66 / FC OSS 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.013 / def 0.989 | FC OSS attack 0.762 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC OSS xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 52% chance of winning, FC OSS a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.04
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.69
1.03
FC OSS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
22.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.03 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 17W 11D 19L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 28L across 47 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 8D 5L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 28L in their last 47 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.71 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 62%, FC OSS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 58% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong AZ's games and 54% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC OSS 3-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.66 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against FC OSS attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 52% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 23%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 55%, FC OSS 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.