Jong AZ 3-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 1D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Emmen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Jong AZ, 1.30 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Jong AZ 0W, Emmen 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 61% versus Emmen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 61% | Emmen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.47 xG and Emmen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.211 / defence 0.894 | Emmen attack 0.874 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.332. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Jong AZ games / 32 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 68% | Draw 18% | Emmen 14%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Emmen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 68% | Draw 18% | Emmen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong AZ 2.47 / Emmen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.211 / def 0.894 | Emmen attack 0.874 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Emmen xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Jong AZ 3 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 68% chance of winning, Emmen a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.21x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.87x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.48
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.51
1.04
Emmen xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
8%
11.83
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
1%
87.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.04 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 70 games, going 27W 16D 27L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.13 PPG from 70 outings (21W 16D 33L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.13 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 18W 9D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.91 points per game from 35 outings (9W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.20 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 27W 16D 27L in their last 70 games (1.39 PPG), while Emmen have gone 21W 16D 33L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.80 PPG; Emmen away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Jong AZ 2-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 57%, Emmen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Jong AZ and 69% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Emmen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jong AZ's games and 63% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jong AZ's matches and 69% of Emmen's.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Emmen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out Emmen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Emmen 3-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.47 xG and Emmen 1.04 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Emmen attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 68% | Draw 18% | Emmen 14%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 61%, Emmen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.39 PPG, Emmen 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.