Jong AZ vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jong AZ have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 6–3 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 62% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / defence 1.012 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 48 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 50% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 3.70. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 50% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong AZ 1.74 / Dordrecht 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / def 1.012 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Dordrecht xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 3 May 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 50% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.80x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.23
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.95
1.21
Dordrecht xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
21.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.21 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 6D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (14W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.12 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 6W 2D 15L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 26L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.87 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 48%, Dordrecht 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Jong AZ and 70% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Jong AZ's games and 74% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong AZ's matches and 70% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.