Jong Ajax 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.17 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 93% and Roda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 93% | Roda 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.15 xG and Roda 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.555 / defence 1.240 | Roda attack 1.030 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.598. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Jong Ajax games / 14 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 20% | Roda 38%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.38 | Draw 5.00 | Roda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 86% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 20% | Roda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Jong Ajax 2.15 / Roda 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.555 / def 1.240 | Roda attack 1.030 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Roda xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 42% chance of winning, Roda a 38% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.55x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
42%
2.38
20%
4.96
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
4.19
2.04
Roda xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.33
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
5%
18.38
4%
22.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 2.04 for Roda, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 4L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.86 PPG, Roda on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.93 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 93% of their recent games.
Defensively: Roda in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Roda have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.17 PPG; Roda away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Roda in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 83%, Roda at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Jong Ajax and 83% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Jong Ajax's games and 50% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jong Ajax's matches and 83% of Roda's.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Roda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Roda 2-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.15 xG and Roda 2.04 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Roda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.55 / defence 1.24 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 20% | Roda 38%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 93%, Roda 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 93% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.86 PPG, Roda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.