Jong Ajax 4-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Monday 3 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 4D 5L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 1 for Dordrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 4–3 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and Dordrecht 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 68% | Dordrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.77 xG and Dordrecht 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.908 / defence 1.160 | Dordrecht attack 0.806 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.331. Data: 68 Jong Ajax games / 68 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.70. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Dordrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong Ajax 1.77 / Dordrecht 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.908 / def 1.160 | Dordrecht attack 0.806 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Jong Ajax 4 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 50% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong Ajax and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.81x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.29
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.02
1.24
Dordrecht xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
5%
21.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.24 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax come into this having played 68 games, going 25W 19D 24L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.97 PPG from 68 outings (17W 15D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Jong Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jong Ajax's home form reads 16W 9D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.79 points per game from 34 outings (7W 6D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 25W 19D 24L in their last 68 games (1.38 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 17W 15D 36L in their last 68 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.68 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Jong Ajax, 68% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong Ajax and 71% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Jong Ajax's games and 68% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong Ajax's matches and 71% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong Ajax and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Dordrecht 4-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.77 xG and Dordrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 50% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 27%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, Dordrecht 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.