Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Heracles welcome Waalwijk to Polman Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Polman Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Polman Stadion this season.
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Heracles have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Heracles, 2 for Waalwijk and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 54% and Waalwijk 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 72% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.02 xG and Waalwijk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.288 / defence 0.873 | Waalwijk attack 0.883 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.954 / away 1.475. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Heracles games / 47 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Polman Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Heracles 2.02 / Waalwijk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.288 / def 0.873 | Waalwijk attack 0.883 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.954 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Heracles (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heracles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Polman Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 3 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Heracles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Polman Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Waalwijk part of?
Heracles vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 58% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Heracles and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.69
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.15
1.14
Waalwijk xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
35.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Heracles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Heracles and 1.14 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 5D 26L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.49 PPG from 43 outings (16W 16D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (6W 10D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.26 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.88 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 79%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 12W 5D 26L in their last 43 games (0.95 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 16D 11L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Waalwijk away?
Waalwijk's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.29 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Heracles
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
From 7 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 52%, Waalwijk 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 57% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Heracles's games and 76% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 57% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heracles and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Waalwijk 3-0 at Polman Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.02 xG and Waalwijk 1.14 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.29 / defence 0.87 against Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 21%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 72%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Waalwijk arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.