Helmond Sport 2-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GS Staalwerken Stadion plays host to Helmond Sport versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helmond Sport have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 7W 2D 1L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Helmond Sport's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Helmond Sport 0W, FC Volendam 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 1–4 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 55% versus FC Volendam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 52% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 2.05 xG and FC Volendam 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.008 / defence 0.768 | FC Volendam attack 1.018 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.344. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Helmond Sport's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Helmond Sport games / 6 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 59% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 17%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 59% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Helmond Sport 2.05 / FC Volendam 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.008 / def 0.768 | FC Volendam attack 1.018 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC Volendam xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Helmond Sport 2 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.02x) against Helmond Sport's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
59%
1.71
25%
4.07
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.10
1.05
FC Volendam xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
2%
46.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.05 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helmond Sport come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 11D 13L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.65 PPG from 40 outings (6W 8D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Helmond Sport's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.45 points per game from 20 outings (1W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.15 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 16W 11D 13L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 6W 8D 26L in their last 40 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC Volendam away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Helmond Sport, 80% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Helmond Sport and 70% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Helmond Sport's games and 80% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Helmond Sport's matches and 70% of FC Volendam's.
Do Helmond Sport and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Helmond Sport 2-3 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 2.05 xG and FC Volendam 1.05 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against FC Volendam attack 1.02 / defence 1.35, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 59% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 17%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 52%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.