Helmond Sport 1-3 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees FC OSS travel to SolarUnie Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 2D 5L at SolarUnie Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC OSS — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 0.70 PPG, FC OSS 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC OSS 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 48% versus FC OSS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 48% | FC OSS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.07 xG and FC OSS 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.724 / defence 1.259 | FC OSS attack 0.641 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Helmond Sport games / 21 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 31% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 38%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 50% | FC OSS 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 31% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Helmond Sport 1.07 / FC OSS 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.724 / def 1.259 | FC OSS attack 0.641 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC OSS xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Helmond Sport 1 - 3 FC OSS.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 31% chance of winning, FC OSS a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.72) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.29
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.29
1.21
FC OSS xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.21 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 5D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.95 PPG, FC OSS on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
5
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 54%, FC OSS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Helmond Sport) and 46% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 27% of games; FC OSS in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 46% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 46% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 1-3 at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.07 xG and FC OSS 1.21 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against FC OSS attack 0.64 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 31% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 38%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 48%, FC OSS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.95 PPG, FC OSS 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.