Helmond Sport 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 38%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Helmond Sport welcome Dordrecht to GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helmond Sport at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Helmond Sport, 3 for Dordrecht and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Helmond Sport 0–4 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 62% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 61% | Dordrecht 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Helmond Sport surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.976 / defence 0.964 | Dordrecht attack 1.068 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.293. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 61 games and Dordrecht's last 62.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.65 | Draw 3.76 | Dordrecht 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 60% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 25 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.38 / Dordrecht 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.976 / def 0.964 | Dordrecht attack 1.068 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Dordrecht xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Helmond Sport 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht part of?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 38% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Helmond Sport and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.98) and Dordrecht's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 61 games and Dordrecht's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.76
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.71
1.33
Dordrecht xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport come into this having played 61 games, going 24W 14D 23L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.79 PPG from 61 outings (29W 22D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helmond Sport's home form reads 15W 8D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 10D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.87 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 24W 14D 23L in their last 61 games (1.41 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 29W 22D 10L in their last 61 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Dordrecht away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.77 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dordrecht have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 Helmond Sport.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 67%, Dordrecht at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Helmond Sport) and 60% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Helmond Sport's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Helmond Sport's matches and 60% of Dordrecht's.
Do Helmond Sport and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 83% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 0-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.38 xG and Dordrecht 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helmond Sport fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Dordrecht attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 36%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 61%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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