FC Volendam 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Emmen arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for Emmen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 3–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Emmen — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 66% and Emmen 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Emmen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.51 xG and Emmen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Emmen attack 1.053 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.365. Data: 1 FC Volendam games / 39 Emmen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 26% | Emmen 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 34% | Draw 26% | Emmen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Volendam 1.51 / Emmen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Emmen attack 1.053 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Emmen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Emmen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Emmen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
FC Volendam 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Emmen part of?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 34% chance of winning, Emmen a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Volendam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 2 | Emmen 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.86x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.05x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.79
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.16
1.65
Emmen xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.65 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 4W 7D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 14W 5D 16L from 35 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (3W 2D 11L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.63 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.37 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 24L in their last 35 games (0.54 PPG), while Emmen have gone 14W 5D 16L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 0.69 PPG; Emmen away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 50%, Emmen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC Volendam and 69% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 44% of games; Emmen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Volendam's games and 62% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC Volendam's matches and 69% of Emmen's.
Do FC Volendam and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Emmen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out FC Volendam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC Volendam 0-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.51 xG and Emmen 1.65 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 34% | Draw 26% | Emmen 40%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.