FC Volendam vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Den Bosch travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 1 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 0–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Den Bosch 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 62% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 3.03 xG and Den Bosch 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / defence 0.902 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 3.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 42 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 15% | Den Bosch 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.47 | Draw 6.67 | Den Bosch 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (68%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (3.03 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 15% | Den Bosch 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 75% | xG FC Volendam 3.03 / Den Bosch 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / def 0.902 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.03
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Den Bosch xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch part of?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 68% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 17% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both FC Volendam and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.03. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.3%), 3-2 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
68%
1.48
15%
6.48
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
3 – 2
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.03
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.56
1.53
Den Bosch xG
1.48
68%
Home win
6.48
15%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
5%
20.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
1%
123.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 3.03 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.53 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 4.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 18L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.02 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 3D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.62 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 78%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Den Bosch away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.45 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Den Bosch runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Den Bosch have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, Den Bosch at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 80% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 75% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 80% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC Volendam and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.