FC OSS 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Willem II (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC OSS have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Willem II have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to FC OSS's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 50% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.874 / defence 1.146 | Willem II attack 0.981 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Data: 68 FC OSS games / 30 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC OSS 1.26 / Willem II 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.874 / def 1.146 | Willem II attack 0.981 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Willem II (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Willem II xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Willem II kick off?
FC OSS vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
FC OSS 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is FC OSS vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Willem II part of?
FC OSS vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC OSS and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Willem II in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.87x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.98x) against FC OSS's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.52
25%
3.92
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.92
1.66
Willem II xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
5%
18.53
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.66 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS's recent record stands at 14W 24D 30L from 68 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 31L across 68 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for FC OSS against 1.13 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 11W 7D 16L from 34 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 9W 10D 15L across 34 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 14W 24D 30L in their last 68 games (0.97 PPG), while Willem II have gone 20W 17D 31L in their last 68 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Willem II away?
FC OSS's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.18 PPG; Willem II away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-5 on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Willem II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC OSS) and 50% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC OSS's matches and 50% of Willem II's.
Do FC OSS and Willem II tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Willem II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.26 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.97 PPG, Willem II 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.