FC OSS 1-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 53%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and NAC Breda meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NAC Breda are 0.90 PPG clear of FC OSS in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 50% versus NAC Breda 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 75% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.88 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.087 / defence 1.356 | NAC Breda attack 0.623 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.452. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FC OSS games / 12 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 4.00. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 67% | NAC Breda 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG FC OSS 1.88 / NAC Breda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.087 / def 1.356 | NAC Breda attack 0.623 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.23
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC OSS vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs NAC Breda?
FC OSS 1 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is FC OSS vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs NAC Breda part of?
FC OSS vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 53% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC OSS and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and NAC Breda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.62x) against FC OSS's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.45
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.11
1.23
NAC Breda xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
26.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.23 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 3W 1D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or NAC Breda away?
FC OSS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.17 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.33 PPG.
Have FC OSS or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, NAC Breda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when FC OSS 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 67%, NAC Breda 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC OSS and 33% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC OSS's recent matches and 33% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC OSS's matches and 33% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC OSS and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.88 xG and NAC Breda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.09 / defence 1.36 against NAC Breda attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 53% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 25%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 75%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.