FC OSS 0-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees MVV travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 1.10 PPG, MVV 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC OSS, 0 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
MVV in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 65% and MVV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 65% | MVV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.71 xG and MVV 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.991 / defence 1.137 | MVV attack 0.863 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 FC OSS games / 37 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 44% | Draw 23% | MVV 32%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | MVV 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 44% | Draw 23% | MVV 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG FC OSS 1.71 / MVV 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.991 / def 1.137 | MVV attack 0.863 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.43
MVV xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs MVV kick off?
FC OSS vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs MVV?
FC OSS 0 - 1 MVV.
Where is FC OSS vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs MVV part of?
FC OSS vs MVV is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 44% chance of winning, MVV a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC OSS and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are FC OSS and MVV in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
44%
2.25
23%
4.26
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.13
1.43
MVV xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC OSS and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.43 for MVV, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 8D 18L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
MVV's form line: 11W 4D 22L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.11 PPG, MVV on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, MVV have gone 6W 1D 11L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.14 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and MVV in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while MVV have gone 11W 4D 22L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or MVV away?
FC OSS's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.28 PPG; MVV away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when MVV won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
2
Draws
5
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, MVV have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when MVV 0-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 72%, MVV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC OSS and 67% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC OSS's games and 56% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of MVV's.
Do FC OSS and MVV tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, MVV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat FC OSS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat FC OSS 0-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.71 xG and MVV 1.43 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against MVV attack 0.86 / defence 1.36, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 44% | Draw 23% | MVV 32%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 65%, MVV 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.11 PPG, MVV 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.