FC OSS 2-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC OSS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees FC Eindhoven travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Eindhoven are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
FC Eindhoven have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against FC OSS's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Eindhoven have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 58% versus FC Eindhoven 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 66% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.72 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.859 / defence 1.163 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.804 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.247. Data: 62 FC OSS games / 62 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 50% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 26%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 3.85. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 50% | FC Eindhoven 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 50% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG FC OSS 1.72 / FC Eindhoven 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.859 / def 1.163 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.804 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
FC OSS 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 50% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC OSS and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.86) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.20
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.89
1.17
FC Eindhoven xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
21.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.17 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 17W 11D 34L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 31W 14D 17L from 62 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (10W 6D 15L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 8D 11L from 31 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.69 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 17W 11D 34L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 31W 14D 17L in their last 62 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.16 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 61%, FC Eindhoven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (FC OSS) and 48% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of FC OSS's recent matches and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC OSS's matches and 48% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do FC OSS and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.72 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.17 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 50% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.