FC OSS 3-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht have collected 1.67 PPG across 3 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 0L. Last five: D W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for FC OSS against 1.67 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 33% and Dordrecht 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 33% | Dordrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.042 / defence 1.102 | Dordrecht attack 0.909 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.444. Data: 3 FC OSS games / 3 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 35% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 40%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 33% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 35% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC OSS 1.34 / Dordrecht 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.042 / def 1.102 | Dordrecht attack 0.909 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Dordrecht xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 3 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 35% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.91x) against FC OSS's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
35%
2.87
25%
3.95
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Dordrecht xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.45 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for FC OSS against 1.67 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have FC OSS or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for FC OSS, 100% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC OSS) and 67% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: FC OSS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC OSS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of FC OSS's games and 100% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC OSS's recent games and 67% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Dordrecht 3-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Dordrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 35% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 40%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 33%, Dordrecht 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dordrecht's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 2.00 PPG, Dordrecht 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.