FC OSS 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almere City FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC OSS against 1.10 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Almere City FC, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–5 with Almere City FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Almere City FC have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 49% versus Almere City FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 43% | Almere City FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.40 xG and Almere City FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.683 / defence 1.009 | Almere City FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.467. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 FC OSS games / 17 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC OSS 1.40 / Almere City FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.683 / def 1.009 | Almere City FC attack 0.878 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Almere City FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC OSS vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Almere City FC?
FC OSS 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is FC OSS vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Almere City FC part of?
FC OSS vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC OSS and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Almere City FC in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.68) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.88x) against FC OSS's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.88
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.70
1.30
Almere City FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.30 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS's recent record stands at 10W 20D 21L from 51 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 29L across 51 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for FC OSS against 0.82 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 4W 5D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 10W 20D 21L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 10W 12D 29L in their last 51 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Almere City FC away?
FC OSS's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.24 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 0-5 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC OSS
0
Draws
6
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, Almere City FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Almere City FC 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 48%, Almere City FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC OSS) and 52% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 36% of games; Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC OSS's recent matches and 40% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC OSS's recent games and 52% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.40 xG and Almere City FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.68 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 43%, Almere City FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.98 PPG, Almere City FC 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.