FC Eindhoven 4-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 7W 2D 1L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VVV Venlo's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Eindhoven 0W, VVV Venlo 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus VVV Venlo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 50% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.50 xG and VVV Venlo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.236 / defence 0.888 | VVV Venlo attack 0.868 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.435. Data: 28 FC Eindhoven games / 28 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 46% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | VVV Venlo 3.70. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 60% | VVV Venlo 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 46% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.50 / VVV Venlo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.236 / def 0.888 | VVV Venlo attack 0.868 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.11
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
FC Eindhoven 4 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 46% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.24x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.87x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.71
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.61
1.11
VVV Venlo xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.11 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 16W 5D 7L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
VVV Venlo's form line: 11W 4D 13L from 28 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VVV Venlo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 2.31 PPG from 13 outings (9W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 7L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 5D 7L in their last 28 games (1.89 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 11W 4D 13L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or VVV Venlo away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.31 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.23 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VVV Venlo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 62%, VVV Venlo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 31%; VVV Venlo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 38% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 54% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat VVV Venlo 4-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.50 xG and VVV Venlo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 46% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 27%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 50%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.