FC Eindhoven 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees NAC Breda travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda — All Games: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 0W 2D 2L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.43 vs 0.86. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
NAC Breda trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 57% versus NAC Breda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 57% | NAC Breda 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.18 xG and NAC Breda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.087 / defence 1.133 | NAC Breda attack 0.782 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 FC Eindhoven games / 7 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | NAC Breda 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 67% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.18 / NAC Breda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.087 / def 1.133 | NAC Breda attack 0.782 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.28
NAC Breda xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 58% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.09) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
58%
1.73
20%
4.93
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.46
1.28
NAC Breda xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
2%
40.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.28 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.33 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 67%, NAC Breda 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Eindhoven) and 33% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 33%; NAC Breda in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 33% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 33% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.18 xG and NAC Breda 1.28 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against NAC Breda attack 0.78 / defence 1.51, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 58% | Draw 20% | NAC Breda 22%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 57%, NAC Breda 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.