FC Eindhoven 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees FC OSS travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 October 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.44 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Louwers Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 1D 5L from 9 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.44 PPG, FC OSS 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 44% versus FC OSS 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 44% | FC OSS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.67 xG and FC OSS 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.056 / defence 1.043 | FC OSS attack 0.535 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.359. Data: 9 FC Eindhoven games / 9 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | FC OSS 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.67 / FC OSS 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.056 / def 1.043 | FC OSS attack 0.535 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.76
FC OSS xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 59% chance of winning, FC OSS a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.06) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.16
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.43
0.76
FC OSS xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
31.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.76 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 4W 1D 4L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.44 PPG, FC OSS on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC OSS away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.50 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC OSS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, FC OSS have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS, FC OSS 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Eindhoven) and 25% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC OSS in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 0% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 25% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC OSS tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat FC OSS 2-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.67 xG and FC OSS 0.76 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against FC OSS attack 0.54 / defence 1.19, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 59% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 17%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 44%, FC OSS 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.44 PPG, FC OSS 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.