FC Eindhoven 4-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Eindhoven face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Jan Louwers Stadion to face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 2W 3D 5L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambuur are 0.80 PPG clear of FC Eindhoven in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cambuur in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Eindhoven, 2 for Cambuur and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus Cambuur 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | Cambuur 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 0.66 xG and Cambuur 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.663 / defence 1.227 | Cambuur attack 1.299 / defence 0.634. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.634 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 FC Eindhoven games / 60 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 10% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 71%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Cambuur 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 30% | Cambuur 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 10% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Eindhoven 0.66 / Cambuur 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.663 / def 1.227 | Cambuur attack 1.299 / def 0.634 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Cambuur xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
FC Eindhoven 4 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 10% chance of winning, Cambuur a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.66) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.30x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-3 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
10%
10.48
20%
5.12
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.80
2.14
Cambuur xG
10.48
10%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
12%
8.49
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
1%
89.00
37%
2.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.14 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 21D 22L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 25W 10D 25L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.42 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.00 PPG from 29 outings (6W 11D 12L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 14W 3D 12L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.68 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Cambuur in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Cambuur have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 45%, Cambuur 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FC Eindhoven) and 59% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 52% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 59% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Cambuur tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Cambuur 4-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.66 xG and Cambuur 2.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.66 / defence 1.23 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 0.63, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 10% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 71%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG, Cambuur 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.